Human Security Risk: Tired Mountain Syndrome

By Gary Tetreault, HRNK Research Intern
Edited by Diletta De Luca & Raymond Ha
​

Introduction
 
The dangers posed by North Korea’s nuclear testing extend beyond immediate geopolitical tensions to significant human rights and environmental concerns. The nuclear tests conducted at North Korea’s Punggye-ri nuclear testing site have resulted in what is called “Tired Mountain Syndrome.” The short-term consequences of these tests may lead to the collapse of Mt. Mantap. However, the long-term effects may lead to an eruption of Mount Paektu, a mountain that is considered holy in North Korea.  North Korea’s nuclear testing poses more than just a national security problem. It endangers the human rights and human security of North Korea’s population. For instance, it is believed to have caused earthquakes that otherwise would not have occurred. If continued, nuclear testing at the Punggye-ri testing facility may contribute to the eruption of Mount Paektu or the collapse of Mt. Mantap, which could have catastrophic consequences for both North Korea and neighboring countries.[1] However, no nuclear scientist would report this to the Supreme Leader in fear of punishment.
 
Punggye-ri
 
The Punggye-ri nuclear test facility is North Korea’s sole known nuclear test site, located 17.2 km north of Punggye-ri village in North Hamgyong Province, on the southern slopes of Mount Mantap.[2] Extending 10 km south along a river valley, it was established in the early 2000s and hosted six underground nuclear tests in 2006, 2009, 2013, twice in 2016, and 2017, using two of four known tunnels.[3] Despite announcing its closure in 2018, recent evidence suggests the site is prepared for a seventh test, which could occur at any time. Notably, all six of North Korea's nuclear tests were conducted at the Punggye-ri site, situated in Kilju County in the northeastern part of the country. However, the most vulnerable group in North Korea remains its citizens, as they continue to be exposed to high levels of radioactive material coming from tests that are being conducted at Pungye-ri. Commercial satellite images of North Korea's Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site in 2022 reveal ongoing operations throughout the facility.[4] The support infrastructure and instrumentation surrounding Tunnel No. 3 suggest it is ready for testing if a decision is made. Still, no significant activities, like increased vehicle traffic or personnel surges near the tunnel, would suggest an imminent test.[5] A satellite image of the Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Facility from April 2, 2024, reveals that the road to Tunnel No. 3's portal has been cleared of snow, indicating ongoing low-level activity.[6] This suggests North Korea is committed to maintaining Tunnel No. 3, and the overall facility and activity at Tunnel No. 3 is concerning, as North Korea has completed preparations for a seventh nuclear test there.
 
Tired Mountain Syndrome Effects
 
Tired mountain syndrome occurs when underground nuclear testing causes fractures and weakens the surrounding rock structure, leading to increased permeability and a higher risk of releasing radionuclides and radioactive contamination into the environment.[7] This contamination can have severe costs to people and their quality of life, including increased health risks such as cancer and other radiation-related illnesses. North Korean defectors from regions near the Punggye-ri nuclear test site displayed signs of possible radiation exposure.[8] In the event of Mt. Mantap’s collapse, due to the testing, the surrounding area will face a significant amount of debris exposure from the eruption, heavily damaging the environment, quality of life, and future crop harvest, potentially creating another famine and debris from the eruption extending past North Korea’s border as far as Japan. Exposure to harmful radioactive fallout can occur directly or indirectly. Radioactive material can enter the body if radioactive dust lands on the skin. Many people and animals in the downwind counties around the Nevada testing site in the United States were exposed to harmful toxins in this way. Inhalation of suspended radioactive material is also a significant risk in the downwind region. High-altitude winds can carry radioactive material far from the test site, depositing it on the ground if precipitation occurs.[9] In the case of Mt. Mantap, as tired mountain syndrome softens the soil, the soil is expected to travel down to where the population lives.  Although most farmland is not conducted in North Hamgyong province, satellite images show agricultural fields.[10] In the days following a nuclear test, radioactive material can settle on crops and pastures.[11] Continuation of the nuclear tests may exacerbate the process of the collapse of Mount Mantap, worsening the quality of life for the North Korean population. The environmental damage can also disrupt local ecosystems, contaminate water supplies, and lead to the displacement of communities, further deteriorating living conditions for the people living in North Korea.
 
Health risks
 
For the people of North Korea, the human health cost caused by radiation in the environment can be particularly severe and affect the people living there for generations. The country's limited healthcare infrastructure is ill-equipped to deal with radiation-related health issues, exacerbating the suffering of affected individuals. Regarding human health exposure, The United States exemplifies a substantial increase in thyroid cancer incidence over recent decades, primarily influenced by iodine irradiation.[12] Similar upward trends have been observed in other parts of the world and can be extended to North Korea. In 2017 and 2018, the Ministry of Unification and the Korea Institute of Radiological & Medical Sciences (KIRAMS) conducted radiation exposure tests on North Korean escapees from areas near the Punggye-ri nuclear test site.[13] A total of 40 individuals were tested, 30 in 2017 and 10 in 2018. The results showed that nine of them (4 in 2017 and 5 in 2018) exhibited worrying chromosomal abnormalities, representing 22.5 percent of the total tested.[14] In July 2016, escapees from Kilju County reported health issues. 13 individuals who had lived in Kilju County for several years following North Korea's first to third nuclear tests were among those who reported these health problems. In August 2016, Dr. Choi, a North Korean escapee, informed the media that these escapees were experiencing physical abnormalities, including headaches, weight loss, and decreased sensory function.[15]
Table 3 taken from Mapping the Risk and Effect of Radioactive Contamination of Groundwater Sources from the Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site in North Korea

The psychological toll of living in a contaminated environment adds to the overall human suffering in North Korea. The psychological tolls have been from the direct consequences of nuclear testing and the contaminated environment that ordinary North Korean citizens have been subjected to. It is concerning due to the North Korean regime going to great lengths in concealing the potential risk of living in the area to the residents. A potential collapse of the mountain could lead to the displacement of those living around the area while leaving the Kim regime, escaping responsibility for those it harmed by its nuclear testing. The regime’s prioritization of nuclear testing over the well-being of its citizens constitutes a violation of the right to health and a safe environment. These health concerns violate the people’s physical and mental right to health as laid out in the International Covenant on Economic, Social, and Cultural Rights (ICESCR), adopted by the United Nations General Assembly in 1966, which North Korea ratified on September 14, 1981.[16] Article 12 of the ICESCR states, “The States Parties to the present Covenant recognize the right of everyone to the enjoyment of the highest attainable standard of physical and mental health.” This is a legal obligation that North Korea is bound to follow under its constitution, as specified in Article 15: “The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea shall champion the democratic national rights of Koreans overseas and their rights recognized by international law as well as their interests.” [17]
However, the constitution means little to the Kim regime. While the constitution may exist, more emphasis is put on its ruling ideology imposed on North Korean society.[18]
 
Mount Paektu eruption
 
The intersection of North Korea's nuclear activities and the geological instability of Mount Paektu presents a significant threat to the health of the North Korean population, in addition to the associated risk of nuclear testing. Nuclear testing occurring at Pynggye-ri and the collapse of Mt. Mantap are the short-term effects if North Korea continues its testing activities. Still, concerns about Mt. Paektu's recent activity and how nuclear testing may lead to an eruption have been raised. These tests could exacerbate the region's vulnerability to catastrophic events at Punggye-ri. Bruce Bennett, a senior defense analyst at the Rand Corporation, expressed concern that a sufficiently large test by North Korea could trigger an eruption at Mount Paektu. He told CNN that such an eruption could be massive, potentially killing thousands or even tens of thousands of people in both China and North Korea.[19] While it is uncertain if an enormous nuclear explosion would trigger the volcano, Bennett noted that this possibility has long worried the Chinese, who fear Kim Jong-un's actions could cause the volcano to erupt. According to the Smithsonian’s Global Volcanism Program, approximately 1.6 million people live within 100 kilometers (62 miles) of the volcano, only about 115 to 130 kilometers (70 to 80 miles) from North Korea’s Punggye-ri nuclear test site.[20] North Korea's nuclear weapons program might accelerate this possibility. A separate study by Tae-Kyung Hong in 2016 indicates that the country's underground weapons tests are generating powerful pressure waves directed towards Mount Paektu's massive magma chamber.[21] The magma is absorbing this pressure, and it is possible that if the volcano is already on the brink of eruption, these additional pressure waves could trigger it.[22] Research conducted between 2000 and 2002 and from 2006 to 2010 revealed no surface deformation of Mount Paektu, indicating it is dormant. Despite this, several indicators suggest the possibility of an imminent eruption.[23] These signs include seismic unrest around the volcano, deformation detected by GPS, unusually high gas emissions, and increased thermal activity in hot springs near the summit. In Seung-Gu Lee’s research from 2021, two types of bottled mineral water from wells located in the northern (Baeksansu, BSS) and southern (Baekdusansu, BDS) areas near Mount Paektu (Changbai) were collected to monitor the chemical compositions of groundwater near a potential volcanic area. Research indicated that the chemical composition of mineral water might be altered due to crustal activity such as earthquakes or volcanic activity.[24]
 
The consequences of the eruption
 
The volatile geological conditions at North Korea's Punggye-ri nuclear test site have drawn parallels to the potential eruption of Mount Paektu, highlighting the region's vulnerability to catastrophic natural events. The National Institute of Environmental Research of Korea has examined the potential power of Mount Paektu and indicated that its global impact could be as catastrophic as Mount Tambora, a volcano in Indonesia eruption. Volcanic ash and gas could obscure the sun, reducing East Asian temperatures by 2 degrees for two months.[25] The fallout of volcanic ash could have lasting health effects and cause significant secondary damage to the economy and livelihoods. Health risks from volcanic ash, including respiratory issues, skin irritation, and eye problems, threaten the fundamental right to health. The necessity for evacuation and displacement disrupts communities, leading to the loss of homes and livelihoods, infringing on the right to adequate housing and economic stability. North Korea would face severe disruptions and exacerbating poverty, threatening the Kim regime. Damage to crops and water supplies from the eruption of Mount Paektu could lead to food shortages, undermining the right to food and clean water. Volcanic eruptions significantly impact climate, altering temperature and precipitation, which affects agriculture. Historical Chinese records show this, especially after significant eruptions at low latitudes post-1800s. For example, in 1817, Yunnan experienced no rain during critical rice flowering.[26] These events show how cold and drought conditions led to failed harvests. Mount Paektu sits at a higher elevation outside the range the report suggested. However, any disruption to North Korea’s already fragile food system, an eruption of Mount Paektu would have significant disruption to the lives of the people in North Korea. The destruction of infrastructure, including roads, buildings, and essential services, would impede access to necessary resources. Crops are susceptible to severe climate anomalies such as floods, droughts, and temperature extremes. For instance, if sudden temperature extremes occur during crucial stages of plant development, like flowering, crop yields can be severely affected.[27] This will exacerbate food security challenges in North Korea, , especially among rural citizens who currently facing severe food shortages.[28] Kim Jong-un has stated that food shortages are a “serious political issue,” and a potential eruption could lead to a massive threat to his regime as the eruption's effects would increase food insecurity.[29]
 
The Human Rights Violation
 
North Korea's nuclear testing at the Punggye-ri site presents severe human rights violations, particularly considering Articles 11 and 12 of the ICESCR, which North Korea ratified.[30] The radioactive contamination from these tests jeopardizes the right to an adequate standard of living by threatening local agriculture, food security, and overall living conditions. This negligence is compounded by the government's exacerbation of famine and the food crisis, as it denied the existence of the problem, imposed tight controls to hide the disaster's extent, and hindered the equitable distribution of food aid by restricting freedom of movement, even for the search of food.[31] In the event of Mount Mantap's collapse, many people will be left alone, without the capability to leave in search of a new home, and will completely rely on the will of the North Korean regime to find a new home and food. This environmental degradation contravenes the Covenant's mandate to improve food production methods and efficiently utilize natural resources.[32] Additionally, the structural instability caused by the tests endangers housing and infrastructure, risking displacement and further degrading living conditions. Moreover, the health risks from radiation exposure, including increased rates of cancer and other illnesses, highlight significant violations of the right to health. This negligence violates both the spirit and the letter of the Covenant, emphasizing the need for international intervention to ensure North Korea's compliance and to protect the fundamental human rights of its population.
 
The underground tests have caused earthquakes in previously stable regions, raising the specter of a catastrophic eruption of Mount Paektu. Such an event could release radioactive material across neighboring countries, endangering millions. North Korean nuclear scientists, those that are described in Robert Collin’s work, are driven by fear of reprisal, which means these tests could continue unchecked. This places the citizens of North Korea, already vulnerable, at severe risk from potential radioactive exposure, highlighting the urgent need for denuclearization. North Korea's denuclearization is not just a geopolitical imperative but a human rights necessity. It would mitigate the immediate threat of a nuclear-triggered volcanic eruption and prevent the long-term environmental and health crises that could devastate millions of lives. International pressure, particularly from China, which has expressed concern over the regional fallout, must focus on ending North Korea's nuclear ambitions to ensure the safety and well-being of the entire region. The international community's pressure to denuclearize North Korea is not only essential to prevent a catastrophic radioactive disaster but also crucial in securing the fundamental human rights of the North Korean people.

Gary Tetreault is a first-year Master of Global Affairs student at the Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy at the University of Toronto. Previously, he completed a Bachelor of Arts, double majoring in International Relations and Asian Studies with a minor in Japanese studies. He was also an assistant language teacher in the JET Programme based in Tottori, Japan. As a research intern at HRNK, Gary aims to deepen his knowledge of contemporary issues in North Korea. He intends to apply his primary focus on Asian security and global policy to the challenges in North Korea. Gary seeks to gain a comprehensive understanding of the intricacies of U.S. policy towards North Korea and to explore the security implications of human rights violations on the Korean peninsula.

[1]  Robert Collins, Slaves to the Bomb: The Role and Fate of North Korea’s Nuclear Scientists (Washington, D.C.: Committee for Human Rights in North Korea, 2024), 74
[2] Jacob Bogle, Switchback: Evidence of a Connection between Kwan-li-so No. 16 and the Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Facility? (Washington, D.C: Committee for Human Rights in North Korea, 2023), 2
[3] Jacob Bogle, Switchback: Evidence of a Connection between Kwan-li-so No. 16 and the Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Facility? (Washington, D.C: Committee for Human Rights in North Korea, 2023), 2
[4] Jack Liu, Olli Heinonen, Peter Makowsky. 2023. "North Korea’s Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site: No Signs of an Imminent Test." 38 North. April 11. Accessed June 10, 2024. https://www.38north.org/2023/04/north-koreas-punggye-ri-nuclear-test-site-no-signs-of-an-imminent-test-2/.
[5] Jack Liu, Olli Heinonen, Peter Makowsky. 2023. "North Korea’s Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site: No Signs of an Imminent Test." 38 North. April 11. Accessed June 10, 2024. https://www.38north.org/2023/04/north-koreas-punggye-ri-nuclear-test-site-no-signs-of-an-imminent-test-2/.
[6] Joseph S. Bermudez Jr., Victor Cha and Jennifer Jun. 2024. Recent Activity Observed at Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Facility. Washington DC: center for strategic and international studies.
[7] Adushkin, Vitaly V. 2021. The Containment of Soviet Underground Nuclear Explosions. Open File Report, Reston: U.S. Department of the interior Geological Survey.
[8] Times, The Korea. 2024. Possible radiation exposure suspected among some N. Korea defectors. Febuary 29. Accessed June 13, 2024. https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation/2024/06/103_369748.html.
[9] Meyers, Keith Andrew. 2018. Investigating the Economic Consequences of Atmospheric Nuclear Testing. Arizona: The University of Arizona.
[10] Hui, Mun Dong. 2024. "Satellite imagery shows construction of new factory in N. Hamgyong Province." Daily NK. June 11. https://www.dailynk.com/english/satellite-imagery-shows-construction-new-factory-north-hamgyong-province/#google_vignette.
[11] Meyers, Keith Andrew. 2018. Investigating the Economic Consequences of Atmospheric Nuclear Testing. Arizona: The University of Arizona.
[12]  Prăvălie, Remus. 2014. Nuclear Weapons Tests and Environmental Consequences: A Global Perspective. Bucharest: AMBIO.
[13] group, Transitional Justice working. 2023. Mapping the Risk and Effect of Radioactive Contamination of Groundwater Sources from the Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site in North Korea. Special report, National Endownment for Democracy. Page 50
[14] group, Transitional Justice working. 2023. Mapping the Risk and Effect of Radioactive Contamination of Groundwater Sources from the Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site in North Korea. Special report, National Endownment for Democracy. Page 50
[15] group, Transitional Justice working. 2023. Mapping the Risk and Effect of Radioactive Contamination of Groundwater Sources from the Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site in North Korea. Special report, National Endownment for Democracy. Page 51
[16] United Nations Treaty Collection. 1966. December 16. Accessed june 11, 2024. https://treaties.un.org/Pages/ViewDetails.aspx?src=TREATY&mtdsg_no=IV-3&chapter=4&clang=_en.
[17] Constitute. 2016. 2016.”, “Korea (Democratic People’s Republic of Korea)’s Constitution of 1976 with Amendments through2016. https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Peoples_Republic_of_Korea_2016.pdf?lang=en.
[18] Robert Collins, Slaves to the Bomb: The Role and Fate of North Korea’s Nuclear Scientists (Washington, D.C.: Committee for Human Rights in North Korea, 2024), 1
[19] Berlinger, Joshua. 2017. Could North Korean nuclear test lead to volcanic eruption? May 2. Accessed June 3, 2024. https://www.cnn.com/2017/05/02/asia/north-korea-nuclear-test-mt-paektu/index.html.
[20] Berlinger, Joshua. 2017. Could North Korean nuclear test lead to volcanic eruption? May 2. Accessed June 3, 2024. https://www.cnn.com/2017/05/02/asia/north-korea-nuclear-test-mt-paektu/index.html.
[21] Tae-Kyung Hong, Eunseo Choi, Seongjun Park & Jin Soo Shin. 2016. "Prediction of ground motion and dynamic stress change in Baekdusan (Changbaishan) volcano caused by a North Korean nuclear explosion." Scientific reports (Sci rep 6).
[22] Andrews, Robin. 2017. Could North Korea Accidentally Trigger A Volcanic Eruption? August 23. Accessed June 3, 2024. https://www.forbes.com/sites/robinandrews/2017/08/23/heres-how-north-korea-could-accidentally-trigger-a-volcanic-supereruption/?sh=2e663c7bd558.
[23] Arief R. Achmad, Seulki Lee, Sungjae Park, Jinah Eom & Chang-Wook Lee. 2020. "Estimating the potential risk of the Mt. Baekdu Volcano using a synthetic interferogram and the LAHARZ inundation zone." Springer Link 755-768. Page 756
[24] Seung-Gu Lee, Dong-Chan Koh , Kyoochul Ha , Kyung-Seok Ko , Youn Soo Lee , Youn-Young Jung. 2021. "Geochemical Implication of Chemical Composition of Mineral Water (BottledWater) Produced Near Mt. Baekdu (Changbai),." MDPI page 2
[25] Son, Yejin. 2023. The New York Times. april 13. Accessed june 3, 2024. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/13/learning/an-awakening-of-a-geological-giant-the-next-deadly-eruption-of-mount-baekdu.html.
[26] Zhixin Hao, Danyang Xiong, Jingyun Zheng, Liang Emlyn Yang and Quansheng Ge. 2020. "Volcanic eruptions, successive poor harvests and social resilience over southwest China during the 18–19th century." (Environmental Research Letters covers).
[27] Michael J. Puma, S. Chon and Y. Wada. 2015. Exploring the potential impacts of historic volcanic eruptions on the contemporary global food system. Bern: Pages Past Global Changes.
[28] Un, Lee Chae. 2024. "S. Hamgyong Province’s rural areas suffer from severe food shortages." Daily NK. April 4. Accessed June 12, 2024. https://www.dailynk.com/english/south-hamgyong-province-rural-areas-suffer-severe-food-shortages/.
[29] Yim, Hyunsu. 2024. North Korea's Kim warns that the failure to provide food is a 'serious political issue'. January 24. Accessed 05 22, 2024. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/north-koreas-kim-warns-failure-provide-food-serious-political-issue-2024-01-25/.
[30] General Assembly resolution 2200A (XXI), International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights (Geneva, United Nations Human Rights office of the High Commissioner, 1966)
[31] Paolo Cammarota, Legal Strategies for Protecting Human Rights in North Korea (Washington D.C: Committee for Human Rights in North Korea, 2007), 84
[32] General Assembly resolution 2200A (XXI), International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights (Geneva, United Nations Human Rights office of the High Commissioner, 1966)